Free estimate
Failed payment recovery calculator
A failed payment recovery calculator estimates how much subscription revenue fails each month and how much of it can be won back. Enter your MRR and failed payment rate below. The estimate multiplies the two, splits the result by decline type with typical recoverable shares, and adds unpaid invoices and likely billing leaks.
No signup and no billing access needed for the estimate.
The formula behind the estimate
The calculator uses simple arithmetic so you can check it by hand, and it makes no call to any outside service. The starting point is failed MRR, the recurring revenue whose renewal charge does not go through on the first attempt in a typical month.
Failed MRR = MRR x failed payment rate. With 80,000 USD MRR and a 6 percent failure rate, failed MRR is 4,800 USD a month.
Failed MRR is then split into four decline types, because each type recovers very differently. A charge declined for insufficient funds often succeeds a few days later. A charge on a stolen card almost never will. The recoverable estimate is the sum of each slice multiplied by its recoverable share. Two more lines follow. If you bill by invoice and enter your unpaid amount, 35 percent of it is counted as collectable by an escalating reminder sequence. Likely billing leaks are counted at 1 percent of MRR, the floor of commonly cited leakage ranges. Every figure is rounded down to the nearest 10 USD.
Recoverable share by decline type
The shares below sit at the conservative lower middle of ranges commonly reported for subscription payments. They are benchmarks, not results of any RevRescue account. Your own mix depends on your customers, countries, card types and price points, and after you connect billing your real decline mix replaces them.
| Decline type | Share of failures used | Recoverable share used | Commonly reported range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insufficient funds | 42% | 45% | 40 to 60% |
| Other soft declines (do not honor, generic, issuer unavailable) | 28% | 50% | 40 to 70% |
| Expiring and expired cards | 18% | 40% | 30 to 60% |
| Hard declines (lost or stolen card, closed account, fraud flags) | 12% | 12% | 10 to 20% |
A worked example with hypothetical numbers
Take a hypothetical SaaS company with 80,000 USD MRR, a 6 percent failed payment rate and card billing only, so 4,800 USD fails each month. Insufficient funds is 42 percent of that, about 2,016 USD, and 45 percent of it is recoverable, roughly 900 USD. Other soft declines are about 1,344 USD at 50 percent, roughly 670 USD. Expiring cards are about 864 USD at 40 percent, roughly 340 USD. Hard declines are about 576 USD at 12 percent, roughly 60 USD. Card recovery comes to about 1,970 USD a month, and likely leaks add 800 USD.
For the twelve month projection the calculator assumes the first month reaches 60 percent of the steady figure and the second month 85 percent, because sequences need time to warm up. That puts this example at roughly 31,700 USD over a year, compared with 299 USD a month for the Growth plan, or 149 USD a month billed yearly. The projection ignores the lifetime value of customers who stay, so it understates the real effect.
Where to find your failed payment rate
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1
Open your billing reports
In Stripe, Chargebee, Paddle or Shopify, look at renewal or subscription charges for the last three months.
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2
Count failed first attempts
Divide the number of renewal charges that failed on the first try by all renewal charges in the same period.
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3
Use a range if unsure
Publicly reported first-attempt failure rates for subscriptions often fall between about 5 and 15 percent. Try two values to see a range.
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4
Connect for the real number
After signup, RevRescue reads your actual decline mix and replaces the benchmark ranges with your own data.
What the calculator does not include
The estimate covers recoverable revenue month by month. It does not count the lifetime value of a customer who would otherwise have churned, which usually makes recovery worth more than the monthly figure suggests. It also does not include win-back of customers who already lapsed. For the mechanics behind each slice, see smart payment retries, the card account updater, unpaid invoice collection and revenue leakage. Plans and yearly prices are on pricing.
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate failed payment recovery?
Multiply MRR by your failed payment rate to get failed MRR, split it by decline type, then multiply each slice by its recoverable share, add the results and add a share of unpaid invoices and likely leaks.
What is a normal failed payment rate for subscriptions?
It varies widely by market and customer type. Publicly reported first-attempt failure rates for subscriptions often fall between about 5 and 15 percent, with higher rates for consumer products and international cards.
Do I need to connect billing to use the calculator?
No. The estimate needs only your MRR and failure rate. No signup and no billing access is required.
Why does the calculator show a range?
Recovery depends on your decline mix, customer base and how quickly you act. A range is more honest than a single figure until your real data is connected.
Does RevRescue take a share of recovered revenue?
No. Plans are a flat monthly fee by MRR band, from 99 USD a month, and you keep everything recovered.
Turn your estimate into recovered revenue
Enter your MRR and failed payment rate. The estimate takes under a minute and needs no signup.